Rigetti's revenue growth is a significant concern. The company's reliance on government contracts leads to unpredictable and lumpy revenue streams, as evidenced by the 52% year-over-year decline in Q1 2025. This inconsistency makes it difficult to project future financial performance and raises questions about the sustainability of its business model.

While Rigetti has made strides in advancing its technology, the path to commercialization remains uncertain. The CEO's acknowledgment that meaningful commercial sales are still several years away tempers expectations. The company's ability to secure larger awards and progress in DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative are key factors to watch, but the overall growth perspective is still nascent.

The stock's recent surge, followed by a significant correction, highlights its extreme volatility. While the stock has shown strong momentum at times, it is prone to sharp declines based on market sentiment and news flow. This makes it a risky investment for those seeking stable, long-term growth.

Rigetti faces several risks, including its reliance on government contracts, which are subject to political and budgetary uncertainties. The company also faces intense competition from larger, better-funded players like IBM and Google. Furthermore, the need for ongoing R&D and the potential for further share dilution pose significant challenges to its long-term success.

Rigetti's focus on superconducting qubits and its modular chiplet design offer potential advantages in gate speeds and scalability. The company's Fab-1 facility provides a degree of control over its manufacturing process. However, these innovations are still in the early stages and have yet to translate into a sustainable competitive advantage.

The quantum computing market is becoming increasingly crowded, with major players like IBM and Google investing heavily in their own quantum programs. This intense competition puts pressure on Rigetti to continuously innovate and differentiate its technology to maintain its market position.

Broader economic factors, such as interest rates and government spending policies, can significantly impact Rigetti's prospects. A risk-off environment or cuts in government funding for quantum computing could negatively affect the company's ability to raise capital and pursue its long-term goals.

The quantum computing market presents a substantial long-term opportunity, with estimates ranging from billions to trillions of dollars by 2040. However, the timing and distribution of this market potential remain highly uncertain. Rigetti's ability to capture a significant share of this market will depend on its ability to overcome technical challenges and establish a strong commercial presence.

While Rigetti itself doesn't appear to have direct geopolitical risks, the quantum computing industry is increasingly viewed through a geopolitical lens. Government funding and export controls could impact the company's ability to collaborate with international partners and access certain markets. There are no significant ownership risks identified.