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Gambling.com Group (GAMB) operates in the performance marketing sector for the online gambling industry. This analysis assesses the company's growth prospects, risks, and valuation based on recent performance and industry trends.
Gambling.com Group has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 39.1% year-over-year increase in Q1 2025, reaching $40.64 million. This growth is further supported by the company's reiteration of its 2025 full-year revenue guidance of $170 million to $174 million, representing a 35% increase. The company's ability to generate strong iGaming NDC growth across all geographical regions and the resilience of its North American business against challenging comparables contribute to this positive outlook.
Gambling.com is well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding online wagering market, driven by the maturation of the B2C marketing structure, an increase in brands among operators, and the acceleration of new iCasino territories. The acquisition of Odds Holdings is expected to positively impact the company's valuation by increasing recurring revenue and addressing B2C hold volatility. The company's business model is also seen as transferable to untapped international jurisdictions, with potential for additional M&A activity.
Gambling.com Group's stock has shown a positive trend, rallying to a new 52-week high after posting a beat-and-raise quarter. The company's ability to drive value through its owned assets and the potential for share repurchases provide incremental support for the bull case. However, the stock is down 12.8% on a year-to-date basis, indicating some volatility.
The company faces risks related to the online gambling industry, including potential regulatory changes and increased competition. A recent secondary offering of 4.25 million shares by selling shareholders may also create short-term price pressure. Additionally, a general economic downturn could negatively impact consumer discretionary spending, affecting the gambling sector.
Gambling.com Group is expanding its online gambling ecosystem through acquisitions like Odds Holdings, which adds complementary recurring revenue streams from consumer subscription products and enterprise clients. The Odds Holdings platform strengthens the company's position as a leader in the global online gambling ecosystem by providing real-time odds data and services.
The online gambling affiliate sector is fragmented, but Gambling.com has emerged as a leader in North America due to its unique offering, media assets, and partnerships. The company's high-margin referral model and ability to gain market share in new and mature markets provide a competitive edge.
The casino sector, including Gambling.com, is sensitive to investor anxiety over a potential recession in the U.S. Macroeconomic uncertainty can weigh on gaming names, although most casino/supplier valuations are already trading below historical averages.
The online wagering industry has a visible, multi-year global total addressable market (TAM) growth. Gambling.com's EBITDA is expected to outpace industry TAM growth due to the maturation of the B2C marketing structure, an increase in brands among operators, and profitable entrance into whitespace jurisdictions.
Gambling.com Group is based in the Channel Islands, which generally presents minimal geopolitical risks. The company has a clean capital structure with no debt and a low count of dilutive shares, indicating strong governance.
Gambling.com Group Limited operates as a performance marketing company for the online gambling industry in North America, the United Kingdom, Ireland, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company offers digital marketing, and consumer and enterprise data subscription services for iGaming and social casino products. It also operates various branded websites, including Gambling.com, Bookies.com, Casinos.com, and Freebets.com. Gambling.com Group Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in ...